Financial Planner 4 Percent Rule Target Percentage

Withdrawal Rates

The Retirement Planner uses ranges of withdrawal rates organized into a Success Probability Table to gauge the probability that a retiree will not outlive their portfolio (i.e., success). The probability of success depends on a combination of factors, including life expectancy, asset allocation and withdrawal rate. This page provides withdrawal rates and their associated success probabilities for a wide range of retirement durations and asset allocations.

The success probabilities shown on this page were calculated based on the Morningstar Ibbotson capital market database from 1926 to 2013 using Monte Carlo simulations of 100,000 iterations for each initial withdrawal rate. The tables labeled “Traditional Safe Withdrawal Rates” assume that the first year withdrawal is the stated percentage and subsequent year withdrawals are increased annually by inflation. For a description of the dynamic withdrawal technique used to develop the tables labeled “Target Percentage Adjustment” and “Target Percentage with 3% Maximum Adjustment” see www.TargetPercentage.com.

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Click below for withdrawal rates and their associated the success probabilities based on the desired asset allocation:

Table A – 30% Stocks / 70% Bonds
Table B – 40% Stocks / 60% Bonds

Table C – 50% Stocks / 50% Bonds

Table D – 60% Stocks / 40% Bonds

Table E – 70% Stocks / 30% Bonds

ITGB = Intermediate-term Government Bonds

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Table A
30% Stocks / 70% Bonds
  24% Large cap / 6% Small cap / 70% ITGB
  Highest Initial Withdrawal Rate
 
Retirement Traditional Safe Withdrawal Rates
Duration Probability of Success
(Years) 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%
 
10 11.3% 11.0% 10.8% 10.5% 10.2% 9.7%
15 8.1% 7.9% 7.7% 7.5% 7.2% 6.8%
20 6.6% 6.4% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 5.4%
25 5.7% 5.6% 5.4% 5.2% 4.9% 4.6%
30 5.2% 5.0% 4.8% 4.6% 4.4% 4.0%
35 4.8% 4.6% 4.4% 4.2% 4.0% 3.7%
40 4.5% 4.3% 4.2% 4.0% 3.8% 3.4%
 
Retirement Target Percentage with 3% Maximum Adjustment
Duration Probability of Success
(Years) 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%
 
10 12.3% 12.0% 11.8% 11.5% 11.2% 10.7%
15 9.2% 9.0% 8.8% 8.6% 8.2% 7.8%
20 7.7% 7.5% 7.3% 7.1% 6.8% 6.4%
25 6.9% 6.7% 6.5% 6.3% 6.0% 5.6%
30 6.3% 6.1% 5.9% 5.7% 5.5% 5.1%
35 5.9% 5.7% 5.6% 5.4% 5.1% 4.8%
40 5.6% 5.4% 5.2% 5.0% 4.8% 4.5%
 
Retirement Target Percentage Adjustment
Duration Probability of Success
(Years) 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%
 
10 12.9% 12.8% 12.6% 12.3% 12.0% 11.5%
15 10.1% 9.9% 9.7% 9.5% 9.1% 8.7%
20 8.7% 8.5% 8.3% 8.1% 7.8% 7.4%
25 7.9% 7.7% 7.5% 7.3% 7.0% 6.6%
30 7.3% 7.2% 7.0% 6.8% 6.5% 6.1%
35 6.9% 6.8% 6.6% 6.4% 6.1% 5.8%
40 6.6% 6.4% 6.3% 6.1% 5.8% 5.5%
Table B
40% Stocks / 60% Bonds
  32% Large cap / 8% Small cap / 60% ITGB
  Highest Initial Withdrawal Rate
 
Retirement Traditional Safe Withdrawal Rates
Duration Probability of Success
(Years) 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%
 
10 11.4% 11.1% 10.9% 10.5% 10.1% 9.5%
15 8.3% 8.1% 7.8% 7.6% 7.2% 6.7%
20 6.8% 6.6% 6.4% 6.1% 5.8% 5.3%
25 6.0% 5.8% 5.5% 5.3% 5.0% 4.6%
30 5.4% 5.2% 5.0% 4.8% 4.5% 4.1%
35 5.0% 4.8% 4.6% 4.4% 4.1% 3.7%
40 4.8% 4.6% 4.4% 4.1% 3.9% 3.5%
   
Retirement Target Percentage with 3% Maximum Adjustment
Duration Probability of Success
(Years) 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%
 
10 12.4% 12.1% 11.8% 11.5% 11.1% 10.5%
15 9.4% 9.1% 8.9% 8.6% 8.2% 7.7%
20 7.9% 7.7% 7.5% 7.2% 6.8% 6.3%
25 7.1% 6.9% 6.6% 6.4% 6.0% 5.6%
30 6.5% 6.3% 6.1% 5.8% 5.5% 5.1%
35 6.1% 5.9% 5.7% 5.5% 5.2% 4.7%
40 5.8% 5.6% 5.4% 5.2% 4.9% 4.5%
   
Retirement Target Percentage Adjustment
Duration Probability of Success
(Years) 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%
 
10 12.9% 12.9% 12.6% 12.3% 11.9% 11.3%
15 10.2% 10.0% 9.7% 9.5% 9.1% 8.5%
20 8.8% 8.6% 8.4% 8.1% 7.7% 7.2%
25 8.0% 7.8% 7.6% 7.3% 7.0% 6.5%
30 7.5% 7.3% 7.1% 6.8% 6.5% 6.0%
35 7.1% 6.9% 6.7% 6.4% 6.1% 5.7%
40 6.8% 6.6% 6.4% 6.1% 5.8% 5.4%
Table C
50% Stocks / 50% Bonds
  40% Large cap / 10% Small cap / 50% ITGB
  Highest Initial Withdrawal Rate
 
Retirement Traditional Safe Withdrawal Rates
Duration Probability of Success
(Years) 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%
 
10 11.5% 11.2% 10.8% 10.5% 10.0% 9.3%
15 8.4% 8.2% 7.9% 7.5% 7.1% 6.5%
20 7.0% 6.7% 6.4% 6.1% 5.7% 5.2%
25 6.1% 5.9% 5.6% 5.3% 5.0% 4.5%
30 5.6% 5.4% 5.1% 4.8% 4.5% 4.0%
35 5.2% 5.0% 4.8% 4.5% 4.1% 3.7%
40 5.0% 4.8% 4.5% 4.2% 3.9% 3.4%
 
Retirement Target Percentage With 3% Maximum Adjustment
Duration Probability of Success
(Years) 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%
 
10 12.4% 12.1% 11.8% 11.4% 10.9% 10.2%
15 9.5% 9.2% 8.9% 8.5% 8.1% 7.5%
20 8.0% 7.8% 7.5% 7.1% 6.8% 6.2%
25 7.2% 6.9% 6.7% 6.4% 6.0% 5.5%
30 6.7% 6.4% 6.2% 5.9% 5.5% 5.0%
35 6.3% 6.0% 5.8% 5.5% 5.1% 4.7%
40 6.0% 5.8% 5.5% 5.2% 4.9% 4.4%
 
Retirement Target Percentage Adjustment
Duration Probability of Success
(Years) 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%
 
10 12.9% 12.9% 12.5% 12.2% 11.7% 11.0%
15 10.3% 10.0% 9.7% 9.4% 8.9% 8.3%
20 8.9% 8.7% 8.4% 8.0% 7.6% 7.0%
25 8.1% 7.9% 7.6% 7.3% 6.9% 6.3%
30 7.6% 7.3% 7.1% 6.8% 6.4% 5.9%
35 7.2% 7.0% 6.7% 6.4% 6.1% 5.6%
40 6.9% 6.7% 6.4% 6.1% 5.8% 5.3%
  Table D
60% Stocks / 40% Bonds
  48% Large cap / 12% Small cap / 40% ITGB
  Highest Initial Withdrawal Rate
 
Retirement Traditional Safe Withdrawal Rates
Duration Probability of Success
(Years) 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%
 
10 11.5% 11.2% 10.8% 10.3% 9.8% 9.0%
15 8.5% 8.2% 7.9% 7.5% 7.0% 6.3%
20 7.1% 6.8% 6.5% 6.1% 5.6% 5.0%
25 6.3% 6.0% 5.7% 5.3% 4.9% 4.3%
30 5.8% 5.5% 5.2% 4.8% 4.4% 3.9%
35 5.4% 5.1% 4.8% 4.5% 4.1% 3.6%
40 5.2% 4.9% 4.6% 4.3% 3.9% 3.3%
 
Retirement Target Percentage with 3% Maximum Adjustment
Duration Probability of Success
(Years) 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%
 
10 12.5% 12.1% 11.7% 11.3% 10.7% 9.9%
15 9.5% 9.2% 8.8% 8.4% 7.9% 7.2%
20 8.1% 7.8% 7.5% 7.1% 6.6% 5.9%
25 7.3% 7.0% 6.7% 6.3% 5.9% 5.2%
30 6.8% 6.5% 6.2% 5.8% 5.4% 4.8%
35 6.4% 6.1% 5.8% 5.5% 5.1% 4.5%
40 6.1% 5.9% 5.6% 5.2% 4.8% 4.2%
 
Retirement Target Percentage Adjustment
Duration Probability of Success
(Years) 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%
 
10 12.9% 12.8% 12.5% 12.0% 11.4% 10.6%
15 10.3% 10.0% 9.7% 9.2% 8.7% 8.0%
20 9.0% 8.7% 8.3% 7.9% 7.4% 6.7%
25 8.2% 7.9% 7.6% 7.2% 6.7% 6.1%
30 7.7% 7.4% 7.1% 6.7% 6.2% 5.6%
35 7.3% 7.0% 6.7% 6.4% 5.9% 5.3%
40 7.0% 6.7% 6.4% 6.1% 5.6% 5.1%
Table E
70% Stocks / 30% Bonds
  56% Large cap / 14% Small cap / 30% ITGB
  Highest Initial Withdrawal Rate
 
Retirement Traditional Safe Withdrawal Rates
Duration Probability of Success
(Years) 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%
 
10 11.6% 11.1% 10.7% 10.2% 9.5% 8.6%
15 8.6% 8.2% 7.8% 7.4% 6.8% 6.0%
20 7.2% 6.8% 6.4% 6.0% 5.5% 4.8%
25 6.3% 6.0% 5.7% 5.3% 4.8% 4.1%
30 5.9% 5.5% 5.2% 4.8% 4.3% 3.7%
35 5.5% 5.2% 4.8% 4.5% 4.0% 3.4%
40 5.3% 5.0% 4.6% 4.3% 3.8% 3.2%
 
Retirement Target Percentage with 3% Maximum Adjustment
Duration Probability of Success
(Years) 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%
 
10 12.5% 12.0% 11.6% 11.1% 10.4% 9.5%
15 9.5% 9.2% 8.8% 8.3% 7.7% 6.9%
20 8.1% 7.8% 7.4% 7.0% 6.4% 5.7%
25 7.3% 7.0% 6.6% 6.2% 5.7% 5.0%
30 6.8% 6.5% 6.1% 5.7% 5.2% 4.6%
35 6.5% 6.2% 5.8% 5.4% 4.9% 4.3%
40 6.2% 5.9% 5.6% 5.2% 4.7% 4.1%
 
Retirement Target Percentage Adjustment
Duration Probability of Success
(Years) 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%
 
10 12.9% 12.8% 12.3% 11.8% 11.1% 10.2%
15 10.3% 10.0% 9.5% 9.1% 8.5% 7.6%
20 9.0% 8.6% 8.2% 7.8% 7.2% 6.4%
25 8.2% 7.9% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 5.8%
30 7.7% 7.3% 7.0% 6.6% 6.0% 5.3%
35 7.3% 7.0% 6.6% 6.2% 5.7% 5.0%
40 7.0% 6.7% 6.4% 5.9% 5.5% 4.8%